Alex Thorn Says Bitcoin’s Low Is In. What Happened the Last Four Times?

Galaxy's head of research just spotted a signal that has correctly called the bottom in four of Bitcoin's last five bear markets, and the implications for where prices go from here are anything but straightforward.

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Alex Thorn, the head of research at Galaxy, shared insights on X after the weekly close on September 20. He noted that reclaiming the 50-week moving average usually signals that the bear market low has been reached. Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) closed that week at $81,159, surpassing the moving average for the first time in 45 weeks. As of September 21, 2026, it is trading at $84,702, reflecting a 5.3% increase in just 24 hours but down about 3% year-to-date.

Thorn’s statement is more specific than it may seem. He isn’t predicting the Bitcoin price will rise from here; instead, he believes the $57,718 low from July 1 is unlikely to be broken. Historically, after four of the last five bear markets, the first weekly close above this moving average followed a low that held steady. So what happened in those four cases, and what could it mean for Bitcoin’s price today?