Altcoins Could Fall 30% to 50% if Bitcoin Dominance Keeps Rising, Warns Analyst

Soloway said many traders assume rising dominance simply means Bitcoin is doing well. In practice, he explained, it often rises because Bitcoin slips a little while altcoins fall much harder.

The warning on the chart

According to Soloway, Bitcoin dominance has broken above a long-running downward trend line. It then dropped back to retest that line, which he described as normal. If it holds above that level, he expects dominance to climb further.

That leaves two likely outcomes, in his view:

• Bitcoin moves sideways while altcoins lose ground
• Bitcoin pulls back slightly while altcoins fall steeply

How big the drop could be

Soloway estimated that a 10% fall in Bitcoin could push it back to the mid-$70,000 range, with altcoins losing 30% to 40%. A deeper 20% correction in Bitcoin could see altcoins drop as much as 50%.

He said the level to watch is $81,000. A daily close below it would mean Bitcoin’s current bull flag pattern has failed and could open the way toward $70,000.

Bitcoin still bullish in the short term

Soloway said Bitcoin’s short-term chart remains bullish and he still believes the cycle low is in. However, he flagged two concerns: a trend line drawn from earlier lows that is acting as resistance, and a heavy trading zone above the price where many holders who bought earlier may sell to break even.