Call options dominate the playing field, outnumbering puts nearly three to one. The so-called "max pain" levels sit near $95,000 for Bitcoin and $3,000 for Ethereum—price points where options sellers stand to profit most while buyers experience the greatest financial loss.
"The largest expiry on record—representing over half of total open interest," Deribit analysts said. "Post-expiry flows will matter more than price. Watch positioning."
Rollover activity currently dominates the trading market. Many institutions are shifting positions to January contracts to mitigate risk, creating noise in short-term options data.
Why It Matters: Market Direction
Despite the event's size, the market appears calm. Bitcoin's implied 30-day volatility index (DVOL) sits around 42%, down from 63% in late November, suggesting panic-driven swings are unlikely.
For Bitcoin, the $100,000–$116,000 call options dominate, while the $85,000 put remains the most popular downside bet.
Ethereum shows a similar pattern, with concentrated call interest above $3,000.
Greeks.live notes that while puts accounted for 30% of recent block trades, this should not be interpreted as bearish sentiment. Traders picking up leftover positions discarded by institutions can find favorable pricing in this environment, according to analysts.
How institutions manage leftover or rolled-over positions will likely define price action in the first weeks of 2026. The decision to let December put open interest expire at 08:00 UTC on Deribit, or extend them, will determine whether downside risk is year-end driven or signals a structural reset.
Alexey Bondarev is the Head of Content at Yellow.com, having reported on crypto for the last 10 years. He specializes in in-depth Research and Learn pieces, with a focus on analytical reporting, industry context, and the bigger forces shaping crypto, from the AI era and security technologies to fintech innovation. He believes that everything digital will imminently overcome everything analogue and is working hard to make that come true.
