A similar decline from current levels could initially push Bitcoin toward $56,000, with additional weakness potentially taking it into the low-$50,000 range.
However, Cowen stressed that seasonality is not guaranteed and estimated such patterns work roughly 70% of the time.
Why The Next 60 Days Matter
The seasonal weakness also overlaps with Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle timing.
Cowen said Bitcoin’s previous two major cycle bottoms arrived roughly 1,432 and 1,436 days after their respective cycle lows. Bitcoin is currently around day 1,360 of the present cycle.
Another 60 days would put the market near day 1,420, within weeks of the timing of previous cyclical bottoms.
The calendar has also progressively shifted forward. Bitcoin’s major bear-market lows arrived in January 2015, December 2018 and November 2022, making October a plausible candidate this time.
Cowen estimates October could have roughly the same probability of marking the bottom as all other potential months combined, though he cautioned against attempting to time an exact date.
His preferred approach is dollar-cost averaging during the second half of a midterm year rather than waiting for a perfect bottom.
Is Bitcoin Repeating 2018?
Cowen sees similarities between Bitcoin’s 2026 structure and its 2018 bear market, both featured an initial February low, a higher low around March or April and another downside sweep during the summer.
He also described 2026 as a “less volatile version of 2018,” partly because retail participation and social interest never reached the euphoric levels seen around previous cycle peaks.
That creates another possibility of Bitcoin may simply trading sideways near $60,000 through the next several months.
In 2018, Bitcoin spent months consolidating before suffering its final capitulation move in November. If Bitcoin follows that path, Cowen said the bottoming process could extend beyond October and potentially into late November.
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