Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom in Sight? The Next 60 Days Are Key, Analyst Says

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) could be entering a crucial two-month stretch as historical seasonality and previous market cycles point to late September through November as a potential bottoming window.

BTC Seasonality Works 70% — Will It Again?

In a podcast on Aug. 12, crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen said Bitcoin’s next 60 days could determine how the current bear market ultimately plays out.

He highlighted August and September as historically difficult months, particularly during U.S. midterm election years.

In 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin posted losses in May and June, recovered in July and then turned lower again in August and September.

The crypto king has followed the first part of that pattern in 2026, falling in May and June before rebounding in July.

Cowen noted that across midterm years, Bitcoin has historically declined roughly 10%-11% on average in August and about 8% in September.

A similar decline from current levels could initially push Bitcoin toward $56,000, with additional weakness potentially taking it into the low-$50,000 range.

However, Cowen stressed that seasonality is not guaranteed and estimated such patterns work roughly 70% of the time.

Why The Next 60 Days Matter

The seasonal weakness also overlaps with Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle timing.