Bitcoin (BTC) Is Officially Unprofitable: 365-Day Running ROI

With its 365-day running return on investment now firmly below 1, Bitcoin has crossed an unsettling threshold for long-term holders. The most recent reading of roughly 0.514 indicates that Bitcoin is only worth roughly 51% of what it was a year ago, making the trailing 12-month holding period clearly unprofitable.

Negative period for the market

The current price of Bitcoin is compared to its price one year ago using the 365-day running ROI. A one-year holder is profitable if the reading is greater than 1, with 1 indicating breakeven. Bitcoin has generated about a 49% negative return during that time, as reflected by the 0.514 reading. Movements below the 1.0 threshold have historically occurred during some of the worst periods for the Bitcoin market.

During the bear markets of 2014–2015, 2018–2019, and 2022, the indicator remained below breakeven for prolonged periods. However, a market bottom is not necessarily indicated by falling below 1. In fact, past cycles indicate that before Bitcoin establishes a long-lasting recovery, the 365-day ROI may stay low for months and decline significantly further. Because of this, the current reading is less helpful as a direct buy signal and more helpful as a description of the market regime.