Bitcoin Drawdown Analysis Maps a $74,500 Level if Losses Deepen

“Applying that historical average to the recent high gives a price level of approximately $74,500, which could serve as a reference point in the event of further downside.”

The calculation applies a reported 14.39% historical benchmark, an earlier average used for comparison, to the Oct. 5 high.

Earlier Advances Show How Corrections Differ

Average setbacks were 18.41% in 2010-2011, 21.71% in 2011-2013, 10.93% in 2015-2017, 19.39% in 2018-2021, and 7.58% in 2022-2025. The analysis puts the overall average across the five cycles at 14.39%.

The latest cycle’s milder setbacks accompany other observations of moderating fluctuations over time. Fidelity Digital Assets, Fidelity’s digital asset business, documented moderating volatility in May 2024. The term describes the size of movements in either direction. MAC_D’s analysis also noted that individual events produced significantly deeper corrections.

The broader recovery had received support from Cryptoquant’s Bull Score, which rose from 30 to 80 in August. That gauge combines 10 indicators of demand, holder profitability, network activity, and liquidity, the availability of capital to support trading.

Buying Levels Accompany Signs of Recovery