Bitcoin is once again approaching the $65,000 mark, driven by net purchases from large-scale investors and continued inflows into spot exchange-traded funds. Analysts say a sustained push toward $100,000, however, will require a meaningful strengthening of rate-cut expectations.
Bitcoin traded at $64,970 as of 3:55 p.m. Sunday, up 1.07 percent over the previous 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap. The token briefly crossed $65,000 overnight. Ether and Ripple (XRP) gained 0.65 percent and 0.80 percent, respectively, at the same time, while Solana rose 2.56 percent over the prior 24 hours.
James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, said Friday that "the recent recovery in bitcoin prices is closely tied to a shift in the interest rate outlook," adding that "since July 29, markets have begun to significantly reduce the probability of further rate hikes this year." The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady for the fifth consecutive time at its July FOMC meeting. The CME FedWatch tool shows markets currently pricing in a 44.4 percent chance of a rate hike at the September FOMC meeting.
A slowdown in US employment data also helped ease tightening concerns. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that day that nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 from the previous month — far below the market consensus of an 83,000 gain, with the gap between the forecast and the actual figure exceeding 100,000. The sharper-than-expected cooling in hiring has strengthened the case for Fed doves to push for a more accommodative monetary policy stance.
Supply-and-demand indicators are also improving. Butterfill said bitcoin whales had sold roughly $40 billion worth of the token since last October, representing one of the largest bouts of selling pressure in the current cycle, but noted that small-scale net purchases had appeared for three consecutive weeks. He added that the pattern "is consistent with what was observed at a similar point in previous four-year cycles," saying it "signals that the selling pressure is coming to an end."
Inflows through bitcoin spot ETFs have continued as well. Daily net inflows into bitcoin spot ETFs totaled $98.85 million on Friday, according to SoSoValue. Cumulative net inflows so far in August stand at $853.54 million. While that has yet to fully offset the net outflows recorded in May and June, ETF-driven buying has persisted even during periods of price stagnation.
Butterfill forecast that "bitcoin will trade sideways for the next two to three months" and that "it will be difficult to sustain a rally above $80,000." He said a sustained climb to $100,000 would require a more pronounced deterioration in employment data to build rate-cut expectations. "Tensions with Iran remain highly uncertain, and the Fed does not appear willing to signal a dovish monetary policy stance," he added. "A dovish message from the Jackson Hole symposium later this month is not expected either."
Domestic analysts also lean toward bitcoin trading in a range for now. Park Seong-je, a researcher at Shinhan Investment, wrote in a Friday report that "bitcoin fluctuated between $62,800 and $64,800 this week before recovering to $64,000, supported by bargain-hunting inflows into US spot ETFs," and projected "a short-term range of $62,000 to $68,000." He said a break above $65,000, sustained ETF net inflows and an increase in spot trading volume would all need to be confirmed before bitcoin could test the $68,000 resistance level.
