The signal comes from adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) data for long-term holders (LTH) — investors typically seen as the most resilient cohort in the market.
Currently, LTH aNUPL has crossed into negative territory and sits below the broader market average, meaning even long-term holders are now sitting on losses greater than the market as a whole. Historically, this exact pattern — long-term holders hurting more than average — has shown up at every major cycle bottom.
The setup lines up with Bitcoin trading roughly 50% below its cycle high, reinforcing the view that this is more than an ordinary correction.
But analysts caution against calling a bottom just yet. In previous cycles, LTH aNUPL fell into much deeper, more prolonged negative readings before a true low was in — a level of losses some describe as “depression territory.” Today’s numbers haven’t reached that extreme.
The report added that Bitcoin could still need one more capitulation leg to push long-term holder losses to historical extremes. Alternatively, stronger institutional demand and a more structurally resilient holder base could allow the market to bottom with comparatively less damage than in past cycles.
Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold has swung from nearly -0.9 in early 2026 to around +0.7, according to data highlighted by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, who described the move as a return to “digital-gold-era levels.”
The shift suggests investors are once again pricing Bitcoin as a scarce, non-sovereign asset — one that can act as a hedge against currency debasement, fiscal stress, and geopolitical uncertainty, much like gold.
Investors have long-touted Bitcoin as “digital gold” — a long-term store of value like the precious metal. And sometimes, they have been correlated.
But Bitcoin’s behavior remains split. A month-to-date comparison shows it sometimes trading in step with the Nasdaq, behaving like a liquidity-sensitive risk asset, while at other times tracking gold’s moves as a scarcity play.
Its volatility, though, continues to run far higher than gold’s.
Analysts also urge caution in reading too much into the correlation shift. A positive correlation isn’t inherently bullish — the two assets can just as easily fall together as rise together.
