Bitcoin Is Flashing 8 Capitulation Signals. VanEck Says The Bottom May Not Be In Yet.

Bitcoin is flashing several signals associated with the later stages of major selloffs, but historical data suggests investors may have to wait longer before a sustained recovery takes hold.

Eight of 12 "capitulation" indicators tracked by asset manager VanEck are currently at levels associated with periods of heavy selling. All 12 indicators have entered those ranges at some point during the past three months.

Bitcoin was trading around $64,300 Wednesday, about 49% below its all-time high, after spending recent weeks in a relatively narrow range.

CoinDesk reported that VanEck's indicators measure conditions that tend to reach extremes during market declines, including Bitcoin's drawdown from its peak, miner economics and the proportion of holders sitting on losses.

The number of signals does not necessarily mean Bitcoin has reached a bottom.

VanEck examined previous periods when between eight and 12 of its capitulation indicators were active. Bitcoin subsequently returned an average 12.8% over the following 90 days and 32% over 180 days.

Those figures were below Bitcoin's broader historical averages of 15.2% over 90 days and 36.3% over 180 days. The returns following capitulation readings exceeded Bitcoin's historical baseline only when measured over a one-year period.