Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC/USD) lethargic summer has put the cryptocurrency market into a deceptive lull. The most popular coin has been dormant, hovering around the $65,000 mark. Yet, the hibernation is masking a market that may be easier to move.
Thus, the market is increasingly looking like a coiled spring, as muted participation brought compressed price action. But a thinner order book means that even relatively modest flows could set off an outsized rally or trigger a cascade of liquidations.
Observing the Breakout Risk
Bollinger band width, a gauge of the distance between volatility bands around the price, has declined, as evident from the daily chart.
Bitcoin daily chart with Bollinger bands, Source: TradingView
Such conditions have made momentum trades scarce and left range traders competing for smaller moves.
Derivatives activity tells a similar story. Bitcoin perpetual-futures volume on Binance recorded its sixth-lowest daily reading in five years on Aug. 8, for the dominant derivatives venue. The slowdown followed a July period when Binance futures turnover exceeded $57 billion, and the futures-to-spot ratio reached about 7.8 times.
The direction of any break is difficult to predict, but low volume changes the market mechanics. Technical levels become weaker, and leverage can accelerate a move if liquidations begin.
