Bitcoin Price Prediction: Options Expiry October 30

On October 30, 140,844 Bitcoin contracts expire on the options exchange Deribit. At a price of $82,977 on Saturday afternoon that is $11.69 billion in notional value, and two thirds of it are bets on higher prices. The largest of them sits at $95,000, a good 14 percent above today's level. Arithmetically, an expiry at $78,000 would be cheaper for the other side. The rest of the month plays out between those two numbers, and the level where the direction is decided is $80,000.

An options expiry is not an event that moves the Bitcoin price by itself. It does change how expensive hedging is and how many contracts the option writers still carry on their books as the date approaches. Anyone buying, selling or hedging over the coming three weeks meets a market whose positioning is already visible today. This article reads that positioning off the open contracts instead of guessing it.

140,844 Bitcoin options expire on October 30, worth $11.69 billion

Deribit handles the bulk of global trading in Bitcoin options. In its public statistics the exchange reports for every expiry date how many contracts are still open. The reading from October 10, queried in the afternoon: 140,844 contracts for October 30, of which 95,165 are calls and 45,680 puts.