Bitcoin’s $15 billion options expiry puts rally to the test

Bitcoin is heading into a major quarterly options expiry on Friday, with roughly $15 billion in contracts set to expire on Deribit as traders assess whether the cryptocurrency’s recent rally can continue.

More than one-third of Bitcoin options open interest on Deribit is tied to the Sept. 25 expiry. The put-to-call ratio is around 0.70, while large concentrations of call options are positioned at strike prices of $85,000, $90,000 and $100,000, Reuters reported.

Bitcoin was trading around $84,000 on Thursday, leaving it well above the roughly $76,000 max-pain level cited for the expiry. Max pain refers to the price at which the largest number of options would expire worthless, although it is not considered a reliable indicator of where Bitcoin will trade after settlement.

The concentration of call options at higher strike prices has put dealer hedging in focus. Caroline Mauron, co-founder of digital-asset derivatives liquidity provider Orbit Markets, said hedging activity could dampen gains before the contracts expire, with momentum potentially changing after the positions are settled or rolled into later expiries.

Mauricio Di Bartolomeo, co-founder of crypto lender Ledn, said a similar dynamic could emerge around the $85,000 and $100,000 call concentrations if Bitcoin continues to rise.