Bitcoin's Rally Depends on Real Spot Demand After Squeeze

Bitcoin advanced past $72,000 on Thursday following a record short squeeze that forced bearish traders to exit. In the past 24 hours, liquidations of leveraged crypto positions exceeded $3 billion, according to Coinglass.

Perpetual futures open interest has not yet rebounded sharply, meaning the two-day rally has been driven mostly by short covering. Glassnode's Sean Rose estimates the average US Bitcoin ETF cost basis at about $82,465. BlackRock's IBIT estimated cost basis is about $82,206; Fidelity's FBTC is about $73,447.

These levels sit well above the current market price, leaving most ETF holders underwater and waiting to break even. That dynamic creates a potential resistance zone, as many investors may sell once prices approach their break-even points. The lack of perp open interest rebuilding also suggests leveraged traders are hesitant to re-enter, which could limit upside momentum. In other words, the recent surge is not yet backed by fresh capital inflows; it is a reflection of short sellers covering their positions rather than new longs stepping in.

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Digital-asset treasury company shares remain depressed, so the old financing flywheel of issuing stock to buy Bitcoin is not yet back. A sustained move higher depends on natural spot buyers, not forced unwinds. Deribit data shows options open interest clusters near $70,000 calls and $60,000 puts, indicating where traders expect price to settle.