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Bitcoin’s 60-day volatility has fallen to roughly 1.47%, while 30-day volatility sits near 1.16%, levels Cowen said rarely persist for long.
His expectation is that volatility expands sharply as summer ends.
Patterns Don’t Guarantee Sell-Off
Cowen sees similarities between Bitcoin’s 2026 structure and the 2018 bear market.
Both featured a February low, a lower high in May and another downside move during the summer. Social interest continued deteriorating like currently it is at levels last seen around the same point in the 2018 cycle.
That does not guarantee another sell-off, but Cowen believes one final decline could reset several on-chain indicators and create the capitulation conditions normally associated with a durable market bottom.
A break below $60,000 would also resemble 2018 and 2019, when Bitcoin spent months holding a major support level before losing it and forming its cycle low only weeks later.
Cowen estimates Bitcoin is roughly 10 months into what could ultimately become a 12-month bear market.
Is Crypto Winter Ending?
The bigger message is that Cowen does not expect the crypto winter to last indefinitely.
He sees the next several weeks as potentially defining the end of the current bear phase, with volatility likely to return before Bitcoin enters its next broader recovery.
That is also why he favors gradual accumulation over trying to perfectly time a final capitulation candle.
For now, Bitcoin remains compressed near a major technical inflection point.
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