Bitcoin Suffers Macro Headwinds, ETF Inflows Against the Trend Stand Out

Bitcoin lost a key support level under the dual pressure of macro data and surging bond yields, with leverage flushing intensifying short-term downward pressure. However, the continued counter-trend inflows into ETFs and the significant rebound in spot trading volume demonstrate the resilience of institutional capital positioning amid volatility. The future direction of the market will depend on the interplay between options expiration, macro data, and real yield trends. The battle over the two key price levels of $84,000 and $96,700 will determine whether Bitcoin first touches $77,000 or $96,700.

On September 23, the Bitcoin price came under heavy pressure from macro data, hitting an intraday low of $83,500 and directly breaking through the key on-chain support range of $84,000 to $85,000. This price movement was not an isolated event; its deeper driving force stemmed from the sharp climb in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, which closed at 5.11% that day, a single-day increase of 15 basis points. Given that the Federal Reserve had already raised interest rates to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16, the strong economic expansion compressed the room for further rate cuts, significantly increasing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset Bitcoin.