Bitcoin Tests Average Buyer’s Break-Even As ETF Outflows Clash With Wall Street Buying

• Bitcoin traded almost flat on Saturday, hovering just above $82,900.

• CryptoQuant Darkfost analyst described this level as the average holder's break-even point.

• On Wall Street, Fidelity's FBTC bought $354.1 million of Bitcoin over 20 trading days while Morgan Stanley added 92 coins this week to reach 10,639 BTC.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded flat on Saturday, sitting just above the price at which the average holder was neither up nor down, as one analyst said the setup looked like a repeat of a pattern from late last year.

That line sat around $80,500, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost. It was the cost basis of all Bitcoin in circulation, weighted by how much money went into each purchase, so when the price hovered there, the market as a whole was roughly breaking even.

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Darkfost said Bitcoin was oscillating around the break-even line in a pattern that resembled late 2025 and early 2026. A market sitting on that line created doubt, he said, which pushed investors to act. For now, it was holding as support.

Analyst Ted Pillows was watching slightly higher. A weekly close above $82,700 would mean buyers are in control, he said, and could open a move toward $87,000 to $88,000.