Bitcoin Tops $80,000 Again as ETF Flows and Fed Signals Drive Rally

What moved the price

Bitcoin's latest pop came during a broader risk-on day, with equities up, yields easing, and the greenback weaker. It followed Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller signaling he would support holding rates steady if inflation keeps cooling. That backdrop gives Bitcoin another chance to stick above a level it has struggled to hold. It also comes on the heels of a hawkish Jackson Hole speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh that rekindled worries the Fed could raise rates again if inflation remains elevated.

ETF flows and trading signals

Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. found more buyers in August, but the flow has been uneven, with two notable outflow days over the past week. Glassnode said the seven day average intake during the rally reached $290 million per day, while overall trading activity stayed muted versus prior bull runs. The firm added that "inflows driven by discrete policy headlines that lack broader market velocity often coincide with local inflection points."

On a seven day basis, the Coinbase premium - the price gap between the biggest U.S. exchange and offshore venues - has stayed negative for more than four months. "We would like to see higher time frame confirmation alongside continued positive ETF flows before viewing this as a confirmed breakout from the range Bitcoin has traded in since Aug. 2," said Jake Kennis, a senior research analyst at Nansen. "A sustained daily close above the upper end of that range would provide a stronger signal that the market is moving beyond the recent consolidation."