Bitcoin Volatility Craters to 27% as VanEck Flags 8 Of 12 Capitulation Signals Firing

Asset manager VanEck on Tuesday said that 8 of 12 capitulation signals for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) have already appeared as 30-day realized volatility collapsed to 27.2%, its lowest reading in years.

What VanEck’s Capitulation Dashboard Shows

VanEck senior analyst Patrick Bush and head of digital assets research Matthew Sigel wrote in the firm’s mid-August Bitcoin ChainCheck that realized volatility dropped to 27.2% annualized, well below the long-run average near 80%. 

All 12 capitulation signals hit their extreme zones at some point in the past three months, with 8 still firing as of Aug. 12.

The current drawdown of minus 49% looks mild compared to prior Bitcoin bear markets, but VanEck argues those comparisons are misleading for three reasons:

• Prior deep troughs of minus 94%, minus 85%, minus 84%, and minus 78% all happened before spot ETFs existed and before institutions held meaningful Bitcoin positions
• Every prior cycle ended with a major blowup forcing mass liquidations — Celsius, Three Arrows Capital, FTX
• This cycle has had none of that, leading VanEck to conclude the bottom this time should be shallower than history alone suggests

Where the Cycle Clock Stands