Bloomberg Strategist: Bitcoin Could Plunge to $10,000 in a Stock Market Crash

Bitcoin could plunge to $10,000 (approximately 13 million won) in an extreme bear market due to its high correlation with U.S. equities, according to a warning from Bloomberg Intelligence. Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, said in an analysis released on the 13th (local time) that Bitcoin is rapidly shedding its image as an independent "digital gold" asset and now trading like a proxy for high-risk equities.

He projected that the S&P 500 falling roughly 20% and remaining at that level for a sustained period could be enough to drive Bitcoin toward $10,000. With Bitcoin currently trading around $77,300 (approximately 100 million won), that would require an additional decline of about 87%.

McGlone identified three signals that increase the likelihood of a Bitcoin downturn. First, while Bitcoin's returns over the past five years have largely tracked the S&P 500, its volatility has been approximately three times higher. His argument is that Bitcoin offers limited investment appeal from a risk-adjusted return standpoint—delivering equity-like returns while forcing investors to endure far greater volatility.

Second, he pointed to U.S. equity valuations being excessively stretched relative to long-term trend lines. In particular, he noted that the S&P 500 has deviated significantly from its 200-week moving average, suggesting a meaningful correction could occur. As Bitcoin becomes increasingly tightly coupled to equity market movements, a sustained stock market decline could deliver an amplified shock to Bitcoin.