CFTC Scrutinizes Kalshi Mention Markets as Sports Word Bets Disappear

According to an NPR report citing two sources with direct knowledge of the investigation, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating prediction-market contracts on whether certain words or phrases will be uttered. The so-called “mention markets” are being scrutinized over speculation that their outcomes may be too easy to manipulate.

Kalshi, however, took down its markets on sports mentions on the platform “until further notice”, NPR reported. Kalshi and the CFTC did not comment to NPR, and at the time, there was no public enforcement action or investigation into the contracts by the CFTC.

Mention markets allow traders to speculate on whether a person will say a specific word or phrase, such as “MVP” for sports contracts and “ankle” and “redshirt”. Although sports mention contracts are suspended, other mention contracts are still available, which include whether President Donald Trump will mention a word or phrase and whether a politician will appear.

According to NPR, Polymarket also has mention markets on its offshore version, but they do not operate on the smaller CFTC-regulated U.S. version of the site.

Commodity Exchange Act designated contract markets must not only offer contracts that are not readily susceptible to manipulation, but also systems to prevent manipulation, price distortion, and settlement disruption. The CFTC’s general rulemaking proceeding has considered how these provisions apply to prediction markets.