Citi predicts Bitcoin going back to $113,000. Here’s what the buying data shows

The target also sits about 10.5% below Bitcoin's prior $126,198.07 record. It would therefore be a recovery within a previously traded price range.

Holding the page's rounded circulating supply of 20.09 million BTC fixed, the target implies approximately $2.27 trillion in quoted market capitalization, an increase of about $601 billion. This approximate valuation comparison excludes subsequent coin issuance.

Market capitalization multiplies the latest price by circulating supply, revaluing coins that have stayed in holders' wallets. The $601 billion increase describes that change in valuation; the cash needed to move prices depends on actual trading.

Historical volatility supplies another scale check. Glassnode's point-in-time data put one-year annualized realized volatility at 43.97% as of Oct. 6. Using logarithmic returns to match the volatility measure, the required gain is about 30.8%, or 0.70 times that annualized scale. A probability or direction forecast would require additional assumptions.

What the ETF assumption can establish

Citi published a historical association in its January 2025 outlook: roughly 4.7% Bitcoin returns associated with each $1 billion of ETF inflows. The bank said flows explained about 46% of price-action variance in that analysis.