CLARITY Act Odds Stay Buried as Senate Showdown Closes In

Key Takeaways

• Kalshi gives a Senate CLARITY Act vote before Oct. 1 a 91% chance.
• Polymarket puts 2026 CLARITY Act passage at 13% after $11.5M traded.
• Lummis faces a Sept. 15 Senate test with a 60-vote cloture hurdle.

The split is hard to miss. At the time of writing, Kalshi traders price a Senate vote before Oct. 1 at 91%, while Polymarket gives the CLARITY Act an extremely low shot at becoming law this year.

Traders expect senators to show up and vote, but prediction market money says Congress probably will not finish the job.

Senate’s Sept. 15 Vote Starts the CLARITY Act Countdown

The Senate left Washington on Aug. 8 after Majority Leader John Thune filed a cloture motion, teeing up a Sept. 15 procedural vote. Cloture generally takes 60 votes and would let the Senate move toward debating and potentially passing the legislation.

Getting there solves only the first problem. According to American Banker reporting, Capital Alpha Partners’ Ian Katz slashed his enactment estimate from roughly 40% to 25%, possibly lower, warning that clearing cloture still would not guarantee passage. Galaxy Digital went further, cutting its estimate to 10% in August as Congress burned through precious calendar days.