EU Carbon Prices May Push Bitcoin Mining Toward Russia, Study Finds

EU Carbon Prices May Push Bitcoin Mining Toward Russia, Study Finds

A new study suggests that higher European Union carbon prices may be linked to more Bitcoin mining activity in Russia, raising concerns about carbon leakage from Europe’s climate policies.

The study, “Does Carbon Pricing Displace Crypto-Mining Emissions? Quantile Evidence on Carbon Leakage from EU27, Russian and Rest-of-World Power Grids,” was submitted to MDPI. Researchers analyzed daily data from January 2019 to January 2026.

The researchers found a significant link between Bitcoin returns, EU carbon allowance returns, and Russian power sector emissions. They say the result is consistent with mining activity shifting toward Russia when Bitcoin prices and EU carbon prices rise.

However, the study does not prove that mining machines physically moved from Europe to Russia. The authors say miners with equipment in both markets could instead switch machines on or off depending on which location offers better returns.

That distinction is important for carbon credit market policy.

How EU Carbon Pricing Can Affect Bitcoin Mining

The EU’s Emissions Trading System (ETS) puts a price on greenhouse gas emissions from covered sectors. Companies generally need one allowance for each tonne of CO2 they emit.