EXCLUSIVE: Small AI Model Matches GPT-4.1 at Forecasting as Olas Founding Member Says Frontier Models Face ‘Increasing Economic Pressure’

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Olas unveiled a new AI model Tuesday that was trained on more than 200,000 prediction market forecasts and matched OpenAI's GPT-4.1 in a test of its ability to predict real-world events.

Olas-Predict-R1-14B achieved 75.8% accuracy across 2,628 previously unseen markets, compared with 75.4% for GPT-4.1 and 71.4% for the underlying DeepSeek model, according to benchmark materials shared with Benzinga.

David Minarsch, CEO of Valory and founding member of Olas, told Benzinga the results suggest cheaper, specialized AI models are putting "increasing economic pressure" on the industry's most advanced general-purpose systems.

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Prediction Markets Become AI Training Data

Olas, which develops autonomous AI agents that research and trade on prediction markets, trained the model using 214,529 forecasts from 5,116 resolved markets.

Each forecast eventually gets an answer, letting researchers see which predictions were right and which were too confident.

Minarsch said the models were not shown existing market odds during the benchmark, meaning they could not simply copy the crowd.