Extreme greed meets a bitcoin breakout

My September 22, 2026 read separates bullish continuation from conditional pullback risk, without turning profit-taking into an all-out exit.

Extreme greed meets a powerful Bitcoin breakout

Bitcoin / TetherUS · 1D · Binance

The Fear & Greed index is at its highest reading since July 2025, a major profit-taking warning in my view, not proof the market cannot rise further. BTC confirmed a daily TBO Breakout on a 6% gain. It is overbought and extended from its Fast line, but Monday’s RSI exceeded the previous high, a strong bullish continuation sign. I am personally taking no more than another 10% from my longs. I expect a sudden pullback, but I am not saying everything dumps today. The Slow line around $70,491 is my worst-case BTC scenario, roughly -17%; separately, I think a panic-sell event around -19% could happen. These are scenarios, not guaranteed targets. Each day BTC stays strong bullish above its Cloud helps curl the Slow line upward, supporting the broader bullish trend and my buy-the-dip stance.

Ethereum reaches a short-term rejection zone

Ethereum / TetherUS · 1D · Binance

ETH printed its third daily TBO Breakout on Monday and barely reached the 1.272 Fibonacci Extension at 2,818. I regard that extension as a rejection zone, weaker because it is short term but still valid. ETH/BTC separately printed a TBT Bearish Divergence, a small warning for ALTs that BTC is winning in the short term. The ratio signal is not an ETH/USD bearish-divergence claim.