Fidelity Says Bitcoin May Be Near a Bottom, Flags Q4 Policy and Volatility Risks

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Sep 4, 2026 at 3:41 AM UTC · 2 分で読める

Fidelity said Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, rising volatility, changes in the regulatory environment, and institutional adoption trends will be the key variables in the fourth quarter.
Fidelity said it is still too early to declare a definitive bottom for Bitcoin, even while using its four-year cycle as a reference point, because the market may have already bottomed in July or could still make another low after November.
Fidelity said stablecoin transactions, real-world asset tokenization (RWA), greater regulatory clarity, shifts in monetary policy, and faster institutional adoption could support fundamentals and serve as catalysts for the next rally, adding that investors should watch fourth-quarter price action, policy progress, and adoption metrics together.

Forecast Trend Report by Period

Fidelity has identified Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, rising volatility, shifts in the regulatory environment and institutional adoption trends as the key variables for the digital-asset market in the fourth quarter. The recent sharp rebound has fueled expectations that the bear market may be ending, but the firm said it is still too early to declare a definitive bottom.

In its latest fourth-quarter crypto market outlook, Fidelity said Bitcoin has historically formed bull-market peaks and bear-market troughs at roughly four-year intervals. If that pattern repeats, the next major low after November 2022 could come around November 2026.

Fidelity Says Bitcoin May Be Near a Bottom, Flags Q4 Policy and Volatility Risks

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