Goldman Reversed Its Fed Call Twice in Four Days. What an October Hike Does to Bitcoin and XRP.

Goldman Sachs reversed its Federal Reserve forecast not once but twice in four days, and the ripple effects for Bitcoin and XRP hinge on whether markets can absorb what comes next in October.

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Goldman Sachs told clients on the morning of September 15, 2026, that it expected the Federal Reserve to raise rates the next day but did not expect another hike to be its baseline. Less than 24 hours later, after the Fed delivered that increase on September 16, Goldman had changed its forecast again and now expected another 25-basis-point hike in October.

The second change followed the Fed’s updated rate projections, higher inflation forecasts, and Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments about financial conditions. That October increase would create a different setup for Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) and XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) because markets had already priced September’s hike, while another increase was less fully anticipated.

Goldman Changed Its Fed Call Twice in Two Days

Goldman Sachs first moved from a no-hike call to expecting a rate increase ahead of the September 16 decision, even as chief economist David Mericle argued there was no “strong economic case” for raising rates and that further hikes were “possible but are not our baseline.” The bank’s September call came as markets were already pricing a high probability of a 25-basis-point increase, after stronger inflation data and rising oil prices pushed more Wall Street economists toward a hike.