Bitcoin traders are rebuilding bets on a run toward $70,000 while still paying for protection against a fall to $60,000, showing that softer US inflation data has done little to break the market’s defensive positioning.
The split held after the Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in July and 3.4% from a year earlier, while core inflation increased 0.2% for the month and 2.5% annually. Both yearly readings eased from June and matched expectations, reducing pressure for the Federal Reserve to tighten policy further.
However, Bitcoin barely reacted. CryptoSlate data showed BTC trading around $63,270 as of press time, extending a three-week stretch in which the asset has largely remained trapped between $63,000 and $65,000.
September hike odds barely move as CPI leaves Fed path unresolved
The muted Bitcoin reaction was mirrored in interest-rate markets, where July's inflation report produced only a modest shift in expectations for the Fed's September meeting.
The market-implied probability of a rate increase slipped to about 42% after the release from roughly 46% beforehand, showing that the in-line print did little to settle the policy outlook.
Samuel Tombs, chief US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the report was still firm enough for policymakers to leave rates unchanged in September.
He estimated that the 0.22% unrounded increase in core CPI would translate into roughly a 0.16% rise in the core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.
Meanwhile, Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, told CryptoSlate that the CPI reading “neither forces a hawkish re-pricing nor delivers a clear dovish catalyst.”
That leaves monetary policy providing little directional impulse for Bitcoin.
Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum Bank, said broader liquidity conditions could therefore become more important for digital assets, pointing to Treasury cash balances, changes linked to the supplementary leverage ratio, private credit creation and stablecoin adoption.
