IEA cuts oil supply outlook again; could it shake bitcoin rate-cut hopes

[DigitalToday intern reporter Seung-a Yoo] The International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its 2026 oil supply outlook again. The timing for a full recovery of supply in the Gulf region was also pushed back to 2027, increasing uncertainty for improving funding conditions in the bitcoin market tied to stabilising energy prices.

On Sept. 13 (local time), blockchain media outlet CryptoSlate reported that the IEA said in a report on Sept. 11 it expects global average crude oil supply this year to be 100.7 million barrels per day. That is 1.3 million barrels per day lower than its Aug. 12 forecast of 102.0 million barrels per day. The IEA expected a full recovery of Gulf-region supply to be delayed until 2027.

The demand outlook also worsened. The IEA expected global oil consumption in 2026 to fall by 2.5 million barrels per day from 2025. That is a larger decline by 940,000 barrels per day than its August forecast. Lower oil consumption could ease supply-shortage pressure, but inventory flows still showed tightness in the physical market.

The IEA estimated confirmed global oil inventories fell by 95 million barrels in August. The cumulative decline since February this year totals 507 million barrels. That means slowing demand alone is not resolving the oil market's supply shortage.