Jim Bianco: Macro Outlook, The 4th Turning and Bitcoin Adoption

The Fed just hiked for the first time in more than three years, and Jim Bianco of Bianco Research says the bond market had been signaling this was necessary for two years. He points out that during the cutting cycle the ten-year yield rose from 3.7% to 5% — the first time in over 50 years that long-term yields climbed while the Fed cut. In this conversation with Grace Remington and Sean Hagan, Bianco explains what he’d need to see in the long end of the curve to conclude the Fed has regained credibility with bond investors, and why the October 28 decision one week before the midterms matters more than Wall Street thinks.

Chapters:
00:00 — What the Long End of the Curve Says About Fed Credibility
00:31 — The Ten Year Went From 3.7% to 5% While the Fed Cut
01:17 — The October 28 Decision One Week Before the Midterms
01:39 — Pushing Back on the Debasement Trade Narrative
02:27 — Development Activity, DeFi Summer, and What Bitcoin Needs to Show
03:04 — Why Tether Is Effectively the Currency in Venezuela and Afghanistan
04:34 — Why the Bitcoin ETF Buildout Missed the Plot
05:26 — Stablecoins, the GENIUS Act, and Real Treasury Demand
06:56 — The Post-COVID Economy and Pushing Back on Jay Powell
08:00 — Multiple Wars, Ports in the Storm, and Fourth Turning Dynamics