JPMorgan Predicts Bitcoin to Outperform Gold if ETF Hedging Unwinds

TL;DR:

• Gold exchange-traded funds recouped 100% of their cumulative capital outflows during 2026, whereas spot Bitcoin ETFs recovered approximately 50%.
• Short interest on BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is trading near its highest levels recorded during 2026.
• The put-to-call open interest ratio on IBIT options remains above the historical average of equivalent instruments such as the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD).

Financial firm JPMorgan anticipates that in the coming months Bitcoin will outperform gold in relative performance if institutional investors begin unwinding their defensive hedges in exchange-traded funds, according to a report published on Thursday, September 17, 2026.

Analysts from the entity pointed out that institutional exposure across both assets increased following the Federal Reserve’s July meeting. Nonetheless, the behavior of derivatives positions reflects a marked disparity between both markets.

Net flows into exchange-traded vehicles indicate that gold has led institutional recovery throughout the year. According to the JPMorgan report, recent inflows into ETFs tied to the precious metal erased all prior capital losses from 2026. Meanwhile, Bitcoin-backed instruments have only offset half of the redemptions incurred over the same period.