Raoul Pal Says Bitcoin Will Outrun the Nasdaq as Rates Break Higher

Key Takeaways

• Raoul Pal said on Sept. 18 that BTC has broken its downtrend against the Nasdaq 100 on weekly charts.
• His call came two days after the Fed hiked rates 25 basis points to a 3.75% to 4.00% range.
• Pal named crypto outside his top 10 investments and believes there are other bigger opportunities heading into 2027.

What Did Pal Actually Say?

The macro investor laid out his case in a six-post thread on X on Friday, adding:

My view for a couple of months is that BTC outperforms the NDX going forward as fiscal dominance and the need to refinance meets the ‘Everything Code.’ As rates broke higher, crypto rose sharply… there is signal in that.

Most traders expect higher rates to hurt bitcoin, but Pal is arguing the opposite, and the past week gives him some material to work with.

Why Would Rate Hikes Help Bitcoin?

The week was supposed to be bearish given the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00% in a 12-0 vote, its first hike since July 2023, and 16 of 18 policymakers signaled at least one more increase before year-end. Two days later, the Bank of Japan lifted its policy rate to 1.25%, the highest in 31 years.

Bitcoin’s price, however, went the other way, and after trading near $75,580 before the Fed’s decision, bitcoin breezed past $81,000 yesterday, a level it has since maintained.