The 10-Year Treasury Yield Could Hit 6%. These 4 Signals Tell Bitcoin Holders Whether to Worry

The interest rate that sets the price of mortgages, car loans and a big chunk of the stock market is heading toward levels last seen during the dot-com bubble. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.23% this week, and a growing list of analysts now expects 6%. For bitcoin holders, that sounds scary because rising rates crushed crypto in 2022. Here’s why this time could be different, why it might not be, and four signals that tell you which story is winning.

First, What Is the 10-Year Treasury Yield?

When the US government borrows money, it sells bonds called Treasuries. The yield is the annual return investors get for lending to the government. The 10-year Treasury is the most-watched version because so much of the economy is priced off it. Mortgage rates, for example, usually sit a couple of percentage points above it. When yields rise, borrowing gets more expensive everywhere, and riskier assets like tech stocks and crypto have to work harder to attract money.

Here’s how fast it has moved:

Veteran tech investor Dan Niles called 6% “plausible” this month, and Markus Thielen of 10x Research expects the 10-year to get there in the coming months.

Why Yields Are Rising, and Why That Matters for Bitcoin