‘Uptober’ test: Can ETF demand keep Bitcoin’s rebound alive after the CLARITY Act setback?

Bitcoin is heading into October on a high after recovering from the US Senate’s failure to advance the CLARITY Act, with the cryptocurrency reaching $86,349 on September 21, its highest level since late January. The rebound has coincided with a sharp reversal in US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, even as markets brace for a possible Federal Reserve rate hike later in October.

The Senate’s September 15 vote was a procedural test rather than a final vote on the legislation. Senators voted 49 for and 50 against invoking cloture on the motion to proceed, falling short of the 60 votes needed to advance the bill.

Bitcoin fell below $76,000 around the vote before recovering above $80,000 and reaching $86,349 on September 21. Kester Ejikeme, founder and project lead of Bitcoin Anambra, says the sequence “shows that one legislative event doesn’t necessarily change the underlying demand for Bitcoin.”

That raises a more useful question than whether Bitcoin has an “Uptober” built into its calendar: Can the demand behind the September rebound continue into October?

October has earned its Bitcoin ‘Uptober’ reputation

According to RiskWhale’s historical price data, Bitcoin finished October higher than it began in nine of the last 11 years, with an average return of 19.1% across that period. October 2024 alone produced a 10.9% gain.