Waited for Bitcoin's October Bottom? Benjamin Cowen Says He Was Wrong

Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, publicly admitted his bearish Bitcoin call failed on Monday, as the cryptocurrency broke decisively above $85,000 and squeezed short sellers.

The reversal marks a turning point for one of the market's most influential bearish voices this cycle.

A Public Reversal Rooted in Cycle Analysis

Cycle analysis is a forecasting method that projects Bitcoin's trajectory from patterns observed in the previous four-year market periods. Cowen leaned on that framework for months, arguing that history still pointed toward lower prices before any durable recovery.

On September 8, he assigned a 65% probability that Bitcoin's cycle low remained ahead, leaving only a 35% chance the bottom was already in. He repeatedly flagged the realized price near $53,000 as a level that earlier bear markets had tested or undercut.

His July memo centered on a fourth-quarter bottom, most likely in October, echoing midterm-year patterns from 2014, 2018, and 2022. Some scenarios contemplated the downside of $44,000.

Even as Bitcoin reclaimed the mid-70,000s, Cowen maintained it was too early to declare the bear market over. He cited historical pullbacks after golden crosses and warned that a lower peak, similar to 2014 and 2015, remained possible.