Wintermute: Bitcoin Range Breakout Delayed by ETF Outflows and Miner Selling

Bitcoin's muted response to softer rate-hike expectations has raised questions about its near-term demand.

Bitcoin is struggling to hold its June range floor after $390 million left US spot BTC ETFs last week, according to Wintermute’s newest market update.

The trading firm says falling rate-hike odds have failed to lift BTC, while ETF redemptions and miner selling have left the market without a strong source of fresh demand.

ETF Flows Fail to Sustain Bitcoin’s August Recovery

As Wintermute pointed out, July CPI came in at 0.1% month-on-month, cutting September rate-hike odds from roughly even to about one-in-three, with retail sales also posting their steepest decline since May 2025.

Almost nothing rallied on it: the S&P 500 added just 0.40%, long-dated Treasuries fell 0.87%, and BTC sat at the bottom, down 3.12%. CoinGecko data shows the cryptocurrency is currently around $64,000, up 1.2% over 24 hours. However, it is down nearly 1% over 30 days and 49% below its October 2025 all-time high.

Brent crude jumped 7.91% as Hormuz ship transits collapsed from 31 the prior weekend to five Saturday and zero Sunday, with the 60-day ceasefire expiring and talks stalled. A re-escalation that holds Brent near $89 puts the August CPI print at risk.