3 Reasons MicroStrategy (MSTR) Stock Could Climb While Bitcoin Remains Flat

Strategy (MSTR) stock is climbing back toward $100, closing Monday near $97.68 after a 5% jump, even though the Bitcoin behind it has barely moved near $64,000.

The stock is down about 38% in 2026, a steeper fall than Bitcoin’s 28% slide. Yet almost every analyst covering MSTR stock still rates it a Strong Buy. Three forces explain that gap, and they all trace back to one number, a premium called mNAV.

The Disconnect Between MSTR Stock and Its Rating: BeInCrypto

MSTR Stock Has Fallen Faster Than Bitcoin

First, the damage. MSTR has dropped roughly 38% so far in 2026, while Bitcoin, the asset that fills its treasury, is down about 28%. The stock fell harder than the thing it owns.

MSTR vs Bitcoin in 2026: BeInCrypto

That is the opposite of what buyers signed up for. Strategy was built to act as leveraged Bitcoin, rising more in rallies, so trailing the coin in a slump is the puzzle the bull case has to solve. But MSTR can still do it without Bitcoin’s help, and 3 reasons explain how.

Reason One, a Premium That Can Rebound

The recovery starts with mNAV, the one number that drives the stock. MSTR is worth the Bitcoin it holds, its net asset value, times a premium investors pay on top, a multiple you can track live. When sentiment runs hot, the premium swells. When it sours, the premium shrinks.