The market continues to view Bitcoin’s current move as nothing more than a relief rally.
From a technical perspective, $BTC has rallied more than 10% so far in Q3, but a real breakout still looks far-fetched unless Bitcoin clears the $73k resistance. Until then, $BTC risks repeating the late-Q2 setup, when bulls failed to hold the $75k-$80k support zone.
That led to a more than 20% pullback in June, marking the second major instance of bulls failing to defend support since Bitcoin’s $126k peak.
If a similar setup plays out again, $BTC’s $65k level could come under pressure for another sell-off. Some market participants are already pricing in the possibility of Bitcoin forming a third lower low by early Q4, while a few are even calling for a move toward $40k.
That scenario can’t be ignored, especially with the analyst behind these calls claiming a 100% hit rate on previous Bitcoin predictions.
In short, the market is still skeptical that Bitcoin [$BTC] has found a bottom.
But the derivatives market isn’t really following that playbook. According to CoinGlass data, $BTC’s Long/Short Ratio has jumped to a multi-year high of 1.81, suggesting traders are leaning heavily bullish despite the uncertainty around $BTC’s price structure.
That puts these heavily leveraged longs at risk of a sharp unwind if $BTC follows the broader market’s bearish Q3 expectations. At the same time, Bitcoin’s liquidation heatmap shows short leverage building up too, with more than $30 million stacked around the $65.8k level alone.
Against this backdrop, Michael Saylor’s latest buy signal doesn’t look like a fluke.
