• In the derivatives market, leverage remains elevated but has stopped increasing. Futures open interest fell from $37.1 billion to $36.4 billion, although it still remains above the upper band of $36.0 billion.
  • Options open interest is holding near $40 billion and remains above the upper band. The volatility spread widened to -22.34%, moving below the lower range, while the 25-delta skew improved from -2.05% to 0.94%, although it remains below the lower band of 3.75%.
  • The ETF MVRV ratio declined to 1.34 and remains within its normal range. On-chain activity also slowed, but without moving outside typical levels: fee volume fell to $202.6K, transfer volume to $4.0 billion, and active addresses to 610.8K.
  • Capital inflows remain constructive. The monthly change in realized cap increased to 1.0%, well above the upper band of 0.2%, while the STH/LTH ratio at 13.7% and the share of so-called hot capital at 17.6% remain within their standard ranges.
  • BTC holders remain broadly profitable, although profitability is gradually weakening. Around 66.2% of supply is currently in profit, while the unrealized profit-to-loss ratio stands at 8.4%; both remain above their upper statistical bands. At the same time, the realized profit-to-loss ratio fell from 1.0 to 0.5, but remains positive.
  • Overall, the data points to stronger selling pressure across spot flows, derivatives and ETFs, although Bitcoin is still holding within its broader consolidation range. There are no clear signs of panic, and the market continues to absorb selling pressure at progressively lower price levels. Even so, new capital is entering the market more cautiously.