Bernstein’s Chhugani forecasts Bitcoin could reach $300,000 by 2029

Bernstein expects Bitcoin (COIN:BTCUSD) to reach $300,000 by the end of 2029, with analyst Gautam Chhugani identifying the cryptocurrency as a major potential beneficiary of what he describes as the debasement trade.

The forecast assumes Bitcoin continues to broadly follow its historical four-year market cycle, with Bernstein also expecting the cryptocurrency to recover to a new record high of $150,000 by the middle of 2027.

"Following our price-to-marginal cost framework, we would expect the next market peak to be $300K by CY2029E and the market recovering to new all-time high of $150,000 by mid-2027E," Chhugani wrote in a note to clients.

Sovereign debt supports Bernstein's debasement thesis

Bernstein's longer-term Bitcoin outlook is partly based on its view that the four-decade period of declining interest rates has come to an end.

Governments are consequently facing higher debt-servicing costs at a time when sovereign debt levels have reached unprecedented levels, creating additional pressure on public finances.

According to Bernstein, higher yields can produce a self-reinforcing cycle in which increased interest expenses contribute to wider fiscal deficits, requiring governments to borrow even more.