Bitcoin Broke Out While Gold, Stocks Struggled: It Feels Like 'The Upside Down'

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen said Thursday that Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) breakout feels like “the upside down,” with every other part of his macro thesis playing out except Bitcoin.

Why the Macro Setup Made Sense to Cowen

Cowen laid out his reasoning on his YouTube channel, pointing to rising oil prices that pushed the 10-year yield to 5.1% while the Fed falls behind the curve, unable to raise rates fast enough to match it. 

He flagged the 2-year yield, often used as a proxy for the neutral rate, which jumped 20 basis points in a single day to 4.9%. 

With the Fed funds rate at just 4%, Cowen argues policy sits roughly a full percentage point below where it needs to be to bring inflation under control.

That combination of rising yields and a strengthening dollar has already stalled the S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY), which topped in mid-August and hasn’t made a new high since. Gold and silver are struggling too, right in the mid-September to mid-October window Cowen expected weakness.

Why Bitcoin Is the Outlier

Everything lined up with Cowen’s thesis except Bitcoin, which broke out instead of falling. He compared the current setup to two prior instances:

• 2019 golden cross — dump followed by a rally
• 2023 golden cross — same pattern, dump then rally, mirroring what’s playing out now