Bitcoin, Ethereum Rally 20%+ — Is the Crypto Bear Market Over?

BTC and ETH gain 25%+, Strategy is back in profit and 13F filings show institutions buying IBIT and Bitcoin. Is the bear market over?

Bitcoin’s (

) abrupt 20%+ breakout to $79,500 has analysts convinced that a regime change that puts the bull market back in play has started. Adding to the melee, Ether (

) and Hyperliquid (

) rallied in excess of 25% and data suggests that the current rally is more than just a random one-off.

Crypto Reaches an Inflection Point

Reflecting on the significance of the crypto market price action, Helios Analytics founder Jamie Coutts

,

“Once you volatility-adjust the move (Bitcoin has been in a structural volatility downtrend), this week's 2-day move is the fifth-largest since 2018 (a 4.4 sigma move). It doesn't read as a normal countertrend rally. The 2018 & 2019 lows both had a volatility squeeze, followed by a big impulse move higher.  Both were large in % terms but not as big as this one in volatility-adjusted terms.”

Coutts explained that the “magnitude of the move” may mark a paradigm shift for the crypto market.

“So a cycle inflection, not a counter-trend bounce, and the forward statistics support that. Bitcoin has been higher >70% of the time 30/90/180 days after moves like this, compared to roughly a coin flip in a random study.”