Bitcoin Hits a Wall. Will “Uptober” Bring a Crypto Correction?

Bitcoin ETF inflows slowed in October after a very strong September, when net inflows into spot funds exceeded $2.6 billion. Even so, the price of the largest cryptocurrency, as well as altcoins, remains close to local highs and is showing notable resilience despite rising bond yields and a stronger US dollar. What do the technical setup and on-chain data suggest?

Key news

• Unfortunately, inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs have slowed significantly compared with September. After an outflow of around $89.9 million on October 5, the funds recorded roughly $118.9 million in net inflows again on October 6, indicating that institutional demand remains positive but is clearly less consistent than it was at the end of September.
• Macro pressure remains the biggest short-term risk. The US 10-year Treasury yield has risen to around 5.3%, while the dollar has approached its highest levels in several months, which could weigh on appetite for higher-risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, if these conditions persist.
• The market continues to respect the $83,000–84,000 area as an important support zone. A sustained move below $83,000 would increase the risk of a decline toward $80,000, while a return above $86,500 would improve the technical structure.
• On-chain data do not currently indicate a strong wave of selling from medium-sized market participants. The seven-day average of BTC inflows from this group to Binance has fallen by more than 36% since mid-August, while inflows to Coinbase Prime are down by around 15%, despite Bitcoin gaining more than 30% over the same period.
• Bitcoin is holding up relatively well against what has historically been a seasonally weak start to October. After gaining more than 6% in September, the market has retained most of those gains, although the current consolidation suggests buyers have not yet fully regained control of momentum.
• The key catalysts for the coming days remain the Fed, bond yields and ETF flows. Markets are focused mainly on the minutes from the Fed’s September meeting, the next move in 10-year Treasury yields, and whether spot Bitcoin ETF inflows become more consistent again.