Bitcoin Hovers at $76K as Analysts Argue the Fed Matters More Than Clarity Act

In brief

• Bitcoin is trading around $76,000 in the wake of the Clarity Act's failure to pass the Senate.
• Analysts say Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision matters more to prices than the vote did.
• Myriad users put a 72% chance on Bitcoin's next move being up to $84,000.

Bitcoin traded around $76,140 Wednesday morning, down 0.9% on the day and 4% for the week, a day after senators blocked the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. Analysts argued that the legislation's failure, while "disappointing," is less consequential for Bitcoin's price than today's Fed decision.

Stephen Wundke, strategy and revenue director at Algoz, put the odds of a quarter-point increase at 93%, in line with CME FedWatch, so the decision "appears to be a given," putting the focus on the language. Those odds were 33.1% a month ago.

"Dovish signals about this being a protective move" could give crypto a strong last quarter of the year, Wundke said, noting that October and November are historically Bitcoin's best-performing months. Hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh could see Bitcoin retest its $63,000 low, he cautioned.

Trading data suggest investors have already stepped back, with Talos seeing a 28% net buying tilt toward stablecoins ahead of the decision, against an average 8% selling tilt around previous FOMC meetings. Buying conviction in Bitcoin has fallen from 10% to 3% and in Ethereum from 23% to 9%, said research analyst Cooper Duschang in a note shared with Decrypt.