Bitcoin may seek 20-month trend line reclaim before new record highs: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin is attempting to break through an “inflection frontier” that has historically triggered runs to new macro highs.

Key points:

• Bitcoin (BTC) may continue to new all-time highs if it successfully breaks through its 20-month moving average at $87,165, CryptoQuant reported.
• The market cycle signals metric showed BTC/USD poised to reclaim this “inflection frontier,” which it lost in December 2025. 
• CryptoQuant’s bull-bear market cycle indicator continued to show Bitcoin as being in a bull market.

Analysis: Bitcoin “reset” complete as key trend line reappears

Data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant reveals that BTC/USD has begun a fresh battle with its 20-month simple moving average (SMA).

The 20-month SMA, at $87,165 as of Oct. 16, is the trend line around which the popular Bollinger Bands metric is constructed. This in turn forms the basis for CryptoQuant’s market cycle signals tool, which seeks to pinpoint Bitcoin’s position within its market cycle.

Bollinger Bands uses standard deviation to add an upper and lower band around the 20-month SMA. Currently, these sit at $121,640 and $52,694, respectively. CryptoQuant’s indicator describes the zone between the lower band and SMA as an “accumulation base,” while the SMA itself is referred to as an “inflection frontier,” a previous point of investor capitulation as price broke below it from above, most recently in December 2025.