Bitcoin Price Slides After Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady, Rate Hike Odds Rise

The Rundown

• Warsh’s Hawkish Dot Plot Reshapes the 2026 Rate Outlook
• Bitcoin Risks New 2026 Lows, but Positive Crypto Developments Continue
• CLARITY Act Delayed, but Does It Matter Anyway?
• Is It Time for a Sector Rotation?
• What’s on the Radar?

Warsh’s First FOMC: Hawkish Dot Plot Reshapes the 2026 Rate Outlook

Crypto markets tumbled as newly confirmed Federal Reserve Chair

at his first FOMC. The Federal Reserve met the consensus expectation (97% probability) of no rate change, holding its benchmark federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% in a 12-0 vote on June 17. However, Warsh’s comments shook markets.

Warsh effectively ended “forward guidance,” emphasizing productivity and letting markets work. The shift moves away from letting the SEP, dot plot and Fed guidance define market expectations and shape the supposed natural flow of markets.

According to Hyblock CEO Shubh Varma:

“Warsh is signaling that he wants a leaner and more forward-looking Fed. One that’s less focused on managing expectations every quarter the way Powell did, and more focused on actually modernizing how the institution works. On that broad point, they said that most serious people agree this is a good direction. There’s a view that the Fed clearly needs updating for the economy we have today.”