Bitcoin Reclaims Production Cost for First Time in 280 Days; JPMorgan Flags Easing Miner Sell Pressure

JPMorgan's analyst team said in a report dated the 23rd that Bitcoin (BTC) has moved above the bank's estimated production cost of approximately $85,000, and if this level is sustained, selling pressure from miners could ease, according to crypto media outlet The Block on the 24th.

According to analysis by the team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Bitcoin had traded below its production cost for 280 consecutive days before breaking above that level during this week's rally. That marks the longest stretch below production cost on record, exceeding the roughly 224 days logged in 2018. The price has since pulled back slightly and was trading around $84,100 at the time of reporting.

The analysts explain that production cost has historically served as a "soft floor" for Bitcoin prices. When the price trades below this level for an extended period, miners burdened by heavy electricity and equipment costs fall into unprofitability and are forced to sell their BTC holdings, idle their rigs, or exit the market altogether. Conversely, if the price remains above production cost as it does now, pressure on miner profitability eases and the risk of forced selling recedes, the analysts note.

Across the mining industry, the hash rate — a measure of mining difficulty — has declined roughly 19% from its peak. Part of the decline is attributed to some mining operators shifting away from Bitcoin mining toward AI-focused data center operations.