Bitcoin’s bullish macro meets an expected pullback

My August 25 read keeps two timeframes separate: I expect a Bitcoin pullback, but I still see weekly and macro strength. That distinction also shapes my Ethereum, stablecoin-dominance and ALT views.

Bitcoin’s daily pullback still needs reversal confirmation

Bitcoin daily chart

I see confirmed higher highs in BTC against lower highs on RSI, giving me the makings of daily bearish divergence. A pullback to tag or touch the daily TBO Fast line is coming, but the question is when, not if. Eager bears can get hurt by shorting too early, so I want the first reversal move for confirmation before trying to short. OBV remains very bullish; while its white MA line keeps moving upward, I prefer buying dips and avoiding shorts on pumps.

The BTC bear flag is only a 30% extreme scenario

Bitcoin weekly chart

I do not expect a massive bearish reversal to begin immediately even if BTC tests and rejects historical support. The bear-flag argument is extremely wild; its measured $50k projection is an extreme conditional scenario and I give the flag only about a 30% chance of being valid. A close inside the parallel channel invalidates the flag. Against it, weekly BTC is already well inside the Cloud in bullish consolidation. Weekly RSI is confirmed overbought, which means strong bullish continuation, OBV is bullish and macro charts lean very bullish. Buying the dip makes much more sense from here.