Bitcoin’s Fed move could run straight into a $6.3 billion IBIT options wall

Bitcoin faces a compressed volatility test as the Federal Reserve’s rate decision lands two days before a major IBIT options expiry.

The Fed will release its policy statement at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference and a fresh Summary of Economic Projections. Any move in Bitcoin will then run into Friday’s expiry of about 1.47 million options contracts tied to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF.

That sequencing gives traders a clear test of whether a macro-driven move can survive one of the largest visible concentrations of positioning in the US-listed Bitcoin ETF options market.

A sustained move outside the busiest IBIT strikes would suggest that the Fed impulse, spot demand, or broader risk positioning overwhelmed the expiry setup. A reversal back toward those strikes would increase the relevance of dealer hedging and position adjustments, though public open-interest data cannot determine the precise cause.

Bitcoin traded around $76,000 ahead of the Fed decision, placing it near the middle of the range implied by the most crowded IBIT strikes.

More than a third of IBIT positioning sits between $40 and $45

Cboe data showed 1,465,553 open contracts for IBIT’s Sept. 18 expiry, comprising 833,070 calls and 632,483 puts.