Bitcoin’s Historic Calm Could Set Stage For 30% Move Over Next 2 Months: Fundstrat

Bitcoin (BTC) may have been quiet over the past few weeks, but that calm could be setting up the stage for a much bigger move. According to Fundstrat, the cryptocurrency’s 30-day volatility sits near historic lows, which is a setup that has historically been followed by a 30% rise over the next two months.

Bitcoin’s price moves over the past 30 days have been among the smallest on record, Fundstrat’s Head of Digital Asset Strategy Sean Farrell reportedly said in a Monday note to CNBC, adding that much bigger moves have historically followed such calm stretches.

"The typical magnitude of historical moves is notable. Looking across prior observations, the median absolute move over the subsequent 60 days has been roughly 30%," Farrell said.

But the historical signal shows no clear directional bias. For the eight episodes FundStrat previously identified, the median absolute move over the next 60 days was just over 30%, with half higher and half lower.

Monday's Bounce Driven By Short Covering

Bitcoin rallied more than 2% on Monday after lagging other cryptocurrencies in recent sessions, though it remained down nearly 27% year to date, according to Fundstrat.

Much of the advance came from traders closing bearish positions, Farrell said, with coin-denominated open interest in perpetual futures down around 8% as prices surged, showing traders unwound sizable bearish exposure.